Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
